IMF Projects Recovery of Egypt’s GDP to 4.1% in Fiscal Year 2025/2026
Inflation is expected to rise before declining, while unemployment projections remain stable at 7.2%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a rebound in Egypt’s GDP, anticipating it will reach 4.1% in the fiscal year 2025/2026. This represents a rise from 2.7% for the current fiscal year 2024/2025. However, this new projection indicates a downward revision from the IMF's previous estimate of 4.1% for FY2024/2025, reflecting a 1.4% decrease.
Notably, Egypt achieved a real GDP growth of 3.8% in FY2023/2024, surpassing the earlier IMF projection of 2.7%.
The IMF will also conduct the fourth review of Egypt's USD 8 billion loan program in November. If approved, this review would grant Egypt access to USD 1.3 billion, marking the largest tranche of the loan.
Inflation remains a concern, as consumer price inflation in Egypt was recorded at 24.4% in FY2023/2024. The IMF projects this rate will rise to 33.3% in FY2024/2025 before decreasing to 21.2% in FY2025/2026.
Regarding unemployment, projections indicate stability, with rates expected to remain at 7.2% for FY2024/2025 and slightly increase to 7.4% in FY2025/2026. This reflects minimal change from the previous year.
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